Update at 4:30 p.m. — A Tornado Watch was also just issued for Arlington and much of the area. From the National Weather Service:
A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia until 10 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/tKjdMxh3X2
If it feels like the weather forecast has been letting you down lately, a growing number of meteorologists say you may not be imagining it.
They point to a quieter problem playing out well above our heads: the National Weather Service has been launching fewer weather balloons, and the resulting gaps in data may be making forecasts less reliable — especially for severe weather.
Weather balloons carry instruments called radiosondes that measure temperature, humidity, pressure and wind as they rise through the atmosphere. That information is among the most valuable data forecasters have. A recent NASA analysis found balloon readings did more to reduce errors in 24-hour forecasts than any single satellite instrument or aircraft data across the Northern Hemisphere.
The Weather Service began scaling back launches in March 2025, citing staffing shortages, and more than 25 sites are now routinely pushing their morning launches to midday, according to Capital Weather. The agency has lost roughly 600 employees to layoffs and buyouts over the past year, CBS News reported.
Forecasters say the missing morning data is most worrisome on days when severe storms are possible.
Meteorologists and an emergency manager told Politico that absent balloon data likely contributed to a poorly predicted tornado outbreak near Kansas City in April. Many Great Plains offices delayed morning launches to noon that day, NBC News reported, too late for the models that run shortly after 7 a.m. — and a tornado watch went up only about 30 minutes before the first twister.
Arlington-based meteorologist Matthew Cappucci, who recently broke down the issue on Fox 5, didn’t mince words on X:
Have weather forecasts seemed less accurate lately? There's a major contributing factor: nearly half the morning weather balloons in the Lower 48 are "missing."
This is an ongoing crisis that is degrading critical severe weather forecasts that we all rely on. It's having real,… pic.twitter.com/xMajo4MzUs
— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) June 27, 2026
How much any of this affects forecasts here is up for debate. Because weather generally moves west to east, some meteorologists argue a missed launch out West can ripple downstream and dent forecasts on the East Coast. Others counter that balloons are a small slice of the data feeding modern models, and that the biggest effects are likely felt closer to the Plains.
The Weather Service, for its part, disputes that forecasts have suffered. A spokesperson told Capital Weather the agency has seen “no evidence of degradation” in its models, pointing to satellites, aircraft and other sensors that help fill the gaps.
Arlington readers have had reason to keep an eye on the forecast lately, from a snowy winter to tornado watches this spring and the threat of severe storms earlier this week. Whether local forecasts have actually slipped is hard to prove — but some seem to have a gut feeling one way or the other.
So today we’re asking: have you noticed weather forecasts getting less accurate recently?
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Arlington and the entire D.C. area.
Forecasters say severe storms with hail and damaging winds, along with some tornados, are possible later today. The watch is in effect until 10 p.m.
It’s going to be stormy, sweltering Fourth of July in Arlington and the D.C. area.
Amid an ongoing heat wave, strong storms are expected to form later today, potentially packing hail and damaging wind gusts up to 75 mph. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was just issued and will be in effect until 10 p.m.
Update at 6:50 p.m. — Nearly 1,000 Dominion customers are without power in Arlington, according to the utility company’s website. Most of the outages are in the county’s far northern neighborhoods along the border with McLean, which is experiencing widespread outages after the storms.
Update at 6:15 p.m. — A second line of storms is arriving and has prompted a second Severe Thunderstorm Warning, below, which is in effect until 7 p.m.
The entire D.C. area, including Arlington and Falls Church, is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch tonight (Monday).
The watch is in effect until 9 p.m.
A pair of good Samaritans rescued a kayaker knocked into the Potomac River without a life vest during a sudden thunderstorm last week.
The kayaker, an older man who has been paddling the Potomac for the last 25 years, had been caught off guard by heavy winds and rain on June 11. Forced out of his kayak by the waves, he was left stranded in the river and unsuccessfully tried to catch the attention of several other vessels before boaters Orlando Karpf and Madison Cutlip heard his cries for help.
Arlington, Falls Church and the entire D.C. area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch tonight (Sunday).
The watch is in effect from now until 11 p.m. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning are all possible with storms that will likely cross the region later today, following a sweltering afternoon.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Arlington, Falls Church, D.C. and surrounding areas.
A storm is approaching from the west with a history of damaging wind gusts near 70 mph. The warning is in effect until 7:45 p.m.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was just issued for Arlington and the D.C. area.
Damaging wind gusts, hail and frequent lightning is possible, forecasters say. The watch is in effect until 9 p.m.
Update at 11:15 a.m. — Nearly 650 homes and businesses are without power in Arlington after last night’s storms, including Ireland’s Four Courts in Courthouse, which is hoping to reopen in time for the World Cup games later today.
Four Courts is still without power after last night's storms, but the pub is hoping to reopen in time for today's World Cup games https://t.co/0T3RkzeIPj
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Arlington and much of the D.C. area.
A line of storms packing damaging wind gusts is quickly approaching from the west. The warning is in effect from now until 8:30 p.m.
