This regularly scheduled column is written by Eli Tucker, Arlington-based Realtor and Arlington resident. If you would like to work with Eli and his team in Northern Virginia and the greater D.C. Metro area, you can reach him directly at [email protected].

Question: Do you expect the housing market to continue at its current pace through the summer?

Answer: Buyers throughout Northern VA have faced stiff competition so far in 2026, especially for detached homes and townhomes. Some relief is coming to buyers still searching for a home, although it will come at the cost of seeing fewer homes hit the market.

The data below is based on homes sold in Arlington VA that went under contract in 2023-2025, but the seasonal trends apply across most Northern VA markets.

Second Half Market is Slower, Less Competitive

When you buy a home affects the way you experience the housing market. Buyers who are active in the first half of the year experience a constant flow of new listings, homes going under contract quickly, frequent competition, and rising prices. Buyers who are active in the second half of the year see fewer listings, homes take longer to sell, less competition, and more stable prices.

• Slower market: Homes sell about 30% slower in the second half of the year

• More negotiations: Buyers negotiate ~2% more off the original asking price in the second half of the year

• Harder to find what you want: 25-30% fewer homes come to market during the second half of the year

• Prices stabilize: Prices tend to appreciate during the first half of the year and stabilize in the second half of the year

• Caution on misreading the data: The 3% and 7% drop in average sold price in the second half of 2024 and 2025 does not necessarily mean home values were 3% and 7% lower during that time, the drop is more correlated to less expensive homes being listed for sale in the second half of the year than the first half

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