NBC 4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer revealed his annual winter forecast last night — and it was disappointing if you like snow.

Doug is calling for a measly 1-6 inches of snow during the entire winter in Arlington and D.C. He believes it will be an unusually warm and wetter than average winter, making for plenty of cold rain but very little snow.

It follows a trend: five of the six most recent winters in the D.C. area have seen below average snowfall, Kammerer said.

Long-range forecasting is far from an exact science and there are other predictions that call for more snow. The meteorologists at WUSA 9 and Fox 5 are both calling for average to above average snowfall. The Farmer’s Almanac, meanwhile, while decidedly not a scientific authority, is predicting above average snowfall and below average temperatures for the region.

Should Kammerer’s prediction come to pass and we see six or fewer inches of snow this winter, how would you feel about it?

Update at 3 p.m. — Snow is starting to taper off. Roads are mostly clear, after just over an inch of snow fell on Arlington.

Update at 9 a.m. — Snow continues to fall amid strong winds, reducing visibility and causing slick conditions on some paved surfaces. All lanes of westbound I-66 are currently closed at Spout Run due to a crash. It’s unclear whether the crash is weather related.

LOCATION: I-66 WB/Spout Run Pkwy
INCIDENT: Traffic Collision
IMPACT: All lanes I-66 westbound at the Spout Run Parkway intersection are currently closed. Seek an alternate route. pic.twitter.com/8gyRcHnjEN

— Arlington Alert (@ArlingtonAlert) March 12, 2022

Earlier: Frozen precipitation is now falling on Arlington and forecasters warn that things are going to get a lot worse before they get better.

Rain is changing over to snow as temperatures fall and strong wind gusts whip up, thanks to a strong cold front and storm system making its way up the East Coast.

In addition to the earlier Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory, the National Weather Service this morning issued a Special Weather Statement urging extra caution on the road if you absolutely must travel during the “near blizzard conditions” expected later this morning.

646 AM EST Sat Mar 12 2022

…RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING…

Rain will change to snow over the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas as well as northeastern Maryland by 9 AM this morning from northwest to southeast. Snowfall rates around one to two inches per hour are expected through late this morning along with rapidly falling temperatures below freezing. Despite the recent warm conditions, snow is expected to stick on many surfaces, causing travel disruptions.

Strong northwest winds with gusts around 45 to 55 mph are expected during this time, causing snow and possible blowing snow to reduce visibility below one-half mile at times. Near blizzard conditions are expected.

Please use extra caution if you have to travel.

More from the Capital Weather Gang:

7:10a: Temps plummeting as transition from rain to snow is occurring in central Fairfax and Montgomery counties. Most places west of DC now in 30s. Dulles: 13F drop in 2 hours, w/ snow. Winds howling, widespread gusts to 30-40 mph.
Updates: https://t.co/kNe0wxSSNy pic.twitter.com/4BIJBijmwY

— Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) March 12, 2022

Get ready for a wintry and windy Saturday.

A Winter Weather Advisory and Wind Advisory, both of which take effect Saturday morning, were just issued for Arlington. Forecasters expect wind gusts up to 55 mph and snow accumulation of 2-4 inches as a storm system moves up the East Coast.

From the National Weather Service:

325 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM EST SATURDAY…

* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Northwest winds will gust around 45 to 55 mph.

* WHERE…Portions of central and northeastern Maryland, northern and central Virginia, and the District of Columbia, including most of the DC and Baltimore metros.

* WHEN…From 7 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday. Rain will change to snow between 7 and 9 AM early Saturday. The steadiest snow will be through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Visibility may be reduced to below one- quarter mile at times. Brief near blizzard conditions are possible between 8 and 11 AM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Also from NWS:

326 PM EST Fri Mar 11 2022

…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…Northwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE…Portions of northern and central Maryland, northern Virginia, and the District of Columbia including the DC and Baltimore metro areas.

* WHEN…From 6 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS…Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down. Several power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…A few gusts to around 60 mph are possible. Strong winds may persist into early Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. Prepare for power outages.

The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang is a bit more measured in terms of its snow accumulation prediction for Arlington, calling for a coating to 2-3 inches of snow accumulation, with higher amounts north and west.

The storm is expected to start as rain before changing over to snow mid-morning. In such scenarios, snows crews typically do not pre-treat roadways as the treatment would be washed away by the time the frozen precipitation starts.

VDOT said Friday afternoon that its plow crews are ready to tackle the snowy onslaught, while asking drivers to stay at home if at all possible.

VDOT Northern Virginia crews are ready for winter weather that is forecast to impact the region Saturday. The forecast shows precipitation starting as rain and turning to snow. Residents should be ready for high wind gusts and below freezing temperatures.

As always, residents are asked to monitor forecasts and plan ahead to avoid nonessential travel during winter weather.

What’s Happening Now

• See the Winter Weather Advisory from the National Weather Service for precipitation for Saturday. The forecast includes periods of rain and accumulating snow, as well as increased winds. Please continue to monitor forecasts closely as forecasts can improve or worsen quickly.
• Crews will mobilize overnight to treat state-maintained roads. Please drive with caution around plow trucks as they are heavy and move slowly.
• Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing, causing potential icy conditions. Treat anything that looks wet as if it could be icy, especially bridges, ramps, overpasses, and elevated surfaces. If there is snow or ice on roadways, travel is hazardous.

Storm response crews will be ready for possible accumulations/icy conditions from tomorrow's expected late winter event. Remember: Plowing only takes place with at least 2 inches of snow on roads. Know the phases: https://t.co/DuInmBchJW #ArlWX pic.twitter.com/va1nYDBlGh

— Arlington Department of Environmental Services (@ArlingtonDES) March 11, 2022

Winter Weather Advisories have been expanded eastward to include much of the I-95 corridor for Saturday morning. Wind Advisories are also in effect for much of the area. This paired with heavy, wet snowfall could lead to some power outages, especially where heaviest snow falls. pic.twitter.com/Ia9bez8Wt2

— NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) March 11, 2022

Wet, Windy, Snowy Saturday on Tap — “A powerful storm system will cross the region Saturday. We are likely to see winds gusting over 50 mph Saturday, along with very low wind chills by Saturday night. We remain uncertain about snowfall, as the cold air will be chasing the precip — a wide range remains possible.” [Twitter, Capital Weather Gang]

Firefighters Union Wins Vote — “For the first time in more than FOUR DECADES — a public sector union will have the right to negotiate a contract with Arlington County. And it wasn’t just a win — it was a BLOWOUT.” [Facebook, Twitter]

PSA: Don’t Leave Keys Inside a Parked Car — An auto theft near Upton Hill park: “At approximately 12:40 a.m., a witness observed three unknown suspects rummaging through a vehicle. The witness yelled and the suspects fled the scene on foot. The suspects then entered into the victim’s car, located the keys inside and drove away from the area. The vehicle is described as gray in color, 2015 Honda CRV bearing VA license plate VKX2844.” [ACPD]

Marymount Adding Wrestling Teams — “Marymount University is moving forward on plans to add both Men’s and  Women’s Wrestling as varsity sports, expanding the institution’s athletic offerings to 22 different varsity-level teams. Men’s competition will begin in the 2022-23 academic year, as Marymount currently searches for a head coach who will begin recruiting for the program immediately. Women’s competition will debut during the 2023-24 academic year.” [Marymount University]

How Arlington Landed HQ2 — “If you’re interested in how Amazon could reshape our region, it’s worth understanding what our region had to build to land them. It’s an underdog story that starts with a small team of local business-improvement officials who had neither the clout nor the cash of most of their competitors. Instead, they figured out what Amazon was really looking for and quietly began the process of shaping a city to fit those needs.” [Northern Virginia Magazine]

An Irish Tale on a Local Stage — “Tis the time of the year that everyone wants to be Irish, if only for a wee while, and Encore Stage & Studio has joined the celebration of all things Eire with the world-premiere production of ‘Riley O’Brien and the Lost Leprechaun.’ While aimed at the younger set, the show is inventive in its conception and solid in its execution, making it a treat for all ages.” [Sun Gazette]

Fairfax County Local News — ARLnow’s latest sister site, FFXnow, is providing up-to-the-minute coverage of Fairfax County following its recent official launch. Sign up for the email newsletter or follow on Facebook or Twitter. [FFXnow]

It’s Friday — Sunny most of the day, then rain overnight. High of 59 and low of 37. Sunrise at 6:27 am and sunset at 6:13 pm. [Weather.gov]

Arlington is expected to get 1-2 inches of snow tomorrow, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a Winter Weather Advisory this morning.

The advisory cautions against slippery conditions on local roads as a result of the snow, which is expected to start falling overnight. The snow should wrap up before the kickoff of the Super Bowl Sunday evening.

The advisory from NWS is below.

1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with up to 4 inches locally.

* WHERE…The District of Columbia, portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia.

* WHEN…From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…The heaviest accumulations will be on non-paved surfaces.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Storm response crews will be standing by overnight. Know the phases. #ArlWX https://t.co/DuInmBchJW https://t.co/37zVevpWlI

— Arlington Department of Environmental Services (@ArlingtonDES) February 12, 2022

Preservation Legislation Shuffled — “After a subcommittee approved a measure being sought to give preservation advocates an additional voice in decisions made at the local level, but simultaneously stripped out some key provisions of the bill, its sponsor made a request. Would the House Committee on Counties, Cities and Towns, where the measure was being considered, agree to move the bill to the Committee on Courts of Justice, Del. Patrick Hope asked.” [Sun Gazette]

Don’t Drive Drunk on Super Bowl Sunday — “To keep spectators safe on the roads, the Arlington County Police Department is teaming up with the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to remind football fans everywhere that Fans Don’t Let Fans Drive Drunk… in 2019, there were 10,142 people killed in alcohol-impaired-driving crashes throughout the United States.” [ACPD]

Yogurt Cup Recycling Confusion — Can you recycle small plastic yogurt cups, like those used by Activia and other brands? That’s a solid maybe, according to the Arlington Dept. of Environmental Services. Previously, the county has released publications that alternately described yogurt cups as recyclable and not recyclable. [Twitter]

Injured Squirrel Returns to Fairlington — “Last week, our Animal Control team took in a badly injured squirrel who who received life-saving care at [Blue Ridge Wildlife Center]. Today, Officer Ballena released the now-healthy squirrel back into the wild, very close to where he was found. He was very ready to be back in the wild where he belongs! ” [Facebook]

Kudos for Local Crossing Guard — “Shashu Gebre, Crossing Guard at both Alice West Fleet and Long Branch Elementary Schools, has been recognized by the Virginia Department of Transportation’s Safe Routes to School (VA SRTS) program as one of Virginia’s Most Outstanding Crossing Guards for the 2021-22 school year. The honor is part of Crossing Guard Appreciation Week, an annual Safe Routes to School celebration recognizing Crossing Guards for the critical role they play in the safe routes to school network.’ [Arlington Public Schools, Twitter]

Changes to Electoral Board — “Weinstein, who like [newly-elected Arlington Electoral Board Chair Kim] Phillip is a Democrat on the body, turned over the reins because, come December, he will depart when Republicans pick up a second seat due to the election of Glenn Youngkin as governor. State law requires electoral boards to be composed of two members of the governor’s party, one from the opposing party. Weinstein will serve as vice chair for the remainder of his term, while Republican Scott McGeary will retain his post as secretary.” [Sun Gazette]

Sunday Snow Likely to Be Light — “Our spell of springlike weather will come to a sudden halt Saturday night as a cold front barges through the region, setting the stage for a possible light snowfall early Sunday morning. Right now this doesn’t look like a big deal for several reasons.” [Capital Weather Gang]

It’s Friday — Today will be sunny, with a high near 62 and wind gusts as high as 30 mph. Sunrise at 7:02 a.m., sunset at 5:43 a.m. Saturday will be partly sunny, with a high near 58. Sunday we’ll see snow and some rain in the morning, then partly sunny with a high near 37. [Weather.gov]

New Organ Debuts Tomorrow — “The new organ [at St. George’s Episcopal Church in Virginia Square] cost $1.2 million… Opus 28 arrived in Arlington on Oct. 3, 2021. For three weeks, Pasi put together the 500,000 parts that constitute it. He spent the next two months ‘voicing’ the organ: doing the painstaking adjustments necessary to make everything sound just right.” [Washington Post]

Reminder: Pizza Boxes Can Be Composted — From Arlington’s Dept. of Environmental Services: “There’s No ‘I’ in Food Scraps: Arlington viewers of ‘The Big Game’ can give 110% and go all in in the green curbside cart: pizza crusts and boxes, wing bones and greasy napkins. You won’t be denied.” [Twitter]

County Helping With Museum Renovations — “As efforts begin to renovate its museum, the Arlington Historical Society is working to embrace close collaboration where possible with the Arlington County government. Whether that will turn into a financial partnership remains to be seen, but county staff will be providing their knowledge to help the renovation move ahead.” [Sun Gazette]

Public Defender Pay Bill Fails — “A measure to equalize pay between staff of Virginia prosecutors and those working in public-defender’s offices died in a House of Delegates subcommittee. The measure, patroned by Del. Alfsono Lopez (D-Arlington-Fairfax), would have required localities that supplement the compensation of staff in its office of commonwealth’s attorney beyond state minimums to do the same for staff of a public defender’s office, if a locality has one.” [Sun Gazette]

Nearby: Scammers Impersonating Police — “Officers have received reports from community members who stated that callers contact them claiming to be members of a police department or sheriff’s department. The law enforcement impersonator may… tell the community member they missed a court appearance or jury duty [and] state they need to send money or a warrant will be issued for their arrest or they may turn themselves in to jail.” [City of Falls Church]

Snow Possible This Weekend — “Light to moderate snow could fall in the D.C. area on Super Bowl Sunday. But it’s still not clear whether it will snow hard enough or be cold enough for it to amount to much and have serious effects on the region.” [Capital Weather Gang]

It’s Thursday — Sunny, with a high near 55 today, and wind gusts as high as 21 mph. Sunrise at 7:04 a.m. and sunset at 5:40 p.m. Sunny again tomorrow, with a high near 57 and wind gusts as high as 22 mph. [Weather.gov]

The snow falling in Arlington is providing a wintry ambiance — but little accumulation to speak of so far.

That may change tonight as temperatures fall and roads are expected to become more slippery. Many seem to be heeding calls to stay at home, however, with only light traffic reported on Arlington’s primary routes and highways as of 6 p.m.

Arlington County says its snow crews are out and about, treating main roads. Plowing is likely to be unnecessary, given that only an inch or so of accumulation is expected before the flakes taper off before midnight.

Despite what is turning out to be relatively light snowfall, some Saturday closures have been reported. Among them, morning activities at Arlington Public Schools are cancelled.

More from social media:

First shift of storm response, some 40 trucks, is out checking and treating known trouble spots before snow accumulates on roads after dark. Plan to avoid travel tonight into morning, giving crews space and time to work. #ArlWX https://t.co/DuInmBchJW pic.twitter.com/Ap5YJG8Jg6

— Arlington Department of Environmental Services (@ArlingtonDES) January 28, 2022

"It’s probably a good night to hang out at home. Travel is likely to become problematic over the next several hours." https://t.co/LFIHP3EgeY

— Arlington Department of Environmental Services (@ArlingtonDES) January 28, 2022

❄️☃️ Sat, Jan. 29, 2022: All Saturday Morning Activities Canceled, APS Buildings to Open at 12 p.m. ❄️☃️
More ▶️ https://t.co/LfCyySO0Kz

— Arlington Public Schools (@APSVirginia) January 28, 2022

Local Leaders Push for More Boosters — “A good number of Arlington residents seem to be turning a blind eye and/or deaf ear to governmental drumbeats for COVID booster shots. Only one in three adults in the county has receive the extra shots, County Manager Mark Schwartz told County Board members on Jan. 25. ‘We need to do better,’ the manager said.” [Sun Gazette]

New Trail Proposed — From Arlington Transportation Commission Chair Chris Slatt: “Kenmore Middle School and Carlin Springs Elementary school have a sustainable access problem… One project that could start improving this situation is what Sustainable Mobility for Arlington County calls the ‘Kenmore Connector Trail’ — a walking & biking trail on the west side of Carlin Springs Road that could connect Kenmore & Carlin Springs across Arlington Blvd to the W&OD Trail.” [Chris Slatt]

APS Trying Out New Menu Items — “Despite ongoing concerns about supply-chain problems, the Arlington school system is getting creative in providing new meal options for students. New on the menu for the winter cycle are fruit smoothies for breakfast and spinach-and-chicken empanadas, chicken-and-vegetable dumplings and cheesy chicken pasta for lunch.” [Sun Gazette]

New ATMs at DCA — From Reagan National Airport: “We are in the process of transitioning to a new ATM provider and all ATMs have been removed from the airport. We are working with the new provider to install new ATMs as soon as possible. We appreciate your patience during this transition!” [Twitter]

Early Closure for ANC — “Due to incoming inclement weather, Arlington National Cemetery will close early on Friday, January 28, at 3 pm and will have a delayed opening on Saturday, January 29, until 10 am. Funeral services will not be impacted and will continue as scheduled.” [Twitter]

It’s Friday — On today’s snow threat: “Evening computer models have bumped up snowfall totals in the immediate area and now suggest 1 to 3 inches may be more likely than a coating to 2 inches. Of particular note, they suggest we may have a period of steadier snow around the Friday evening commute as temperatures fall back toward freezing. This could mean slick roads. You may want to think about coming home early (by 3 or 4 p.m.) on Friday or working at home if possible.” [Capital Weather Gang, Twitter]

Preservation Bill Proposed After Rouse Razing — “Del. Patrick Hope (D-Arlington) has introduced legislation that, if enacted, could give preservationists more of a fighting chance to retain properties they deem worth saving. Hope’s bill makes several changes to the state’s historic-preservation laws, most notably prohibiting a local government from permitting the razing of a proposed historic property until 30 days after a final decision on the matter has been made.” [Sun Gazette]

Students Getting At-Home Covid Tests — “Last week we received a large shipment of rapid at-home Covid-19 test kits. These kits are in the process of being delivered to our schools for distribution to students, beginning toward the end of this week or early next.” [Arlington Public Schools]

Dorsey to Lead Regional Board — “Arlington County Board member Christian Dorsey will chair the board of directors of the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments for 2022.” [Sun Gazette]

Old Home Gets Rocking Aesthetic — “The white-stucco, black-shuttered exterior of this 1871 center-hall Colonial in Country Club Hills belies its rock-and-roll interior. That’s part of the fun. A century and a half ago, the stately home was likely built as a summer residence for a wealthy D.C. family. Today, it’s owned by Ben and Dina Hitch, a pair of concert-going music and art aficionados whose vast collection of original record albums and American artwork spans decades.” [Arlington Magazine]

Marymount Junior Stands Out on Court — “As a result of helping the Marymount University women’s basketball team improve to 5-0 and first place in the Atlantic East Conference, junior Symantha Shackelford recently was selected as the league’s Player of the Week in women’s college basketball.” [Sun Gazette]

Snow Incoming — “A major winter storm is set to slam parts of the Northeast on Saturday, with heavy snowfall, strong to damaging winds and coastal flooding all possible… For D.C., Baltimore and Philadelphia, the storm probably gets going too late to drop more than a couple inches of snow, but areas just to the east have a chance to see more substantial amounts.” [Capital Weather Gang, Twitter]

It’s Thursday — Today will be sunny, with a high near 37. Sunrise at 7:18 a.m. and sunset at 5:24 p.m. A low around 27 Thursday night. Friday will be cloudy, with a high near 37. Light snow possible in the morning, then probable in the afternoon, perhaps mixing with rain. Expect snow and wind gusts as high as 26 mph Friday night. [Weather.gov]

This week was yet another filled with plenty of news about snow, but unlike previous January weeks not a lot of actual snow.

Using its last traditional snow day allotment, Arlington Public Schools closed Thursday for what turned out to be a bust — a rainy, cold day. Lucky for students looking to enjoy the weather when school’s closed, this weekend should at least be sunny, albeit a little cold, in Arlington.

Now, here are the most-read Arlington articles of the past week.

1. Feds release new details about Jan. 6 weapons cache at Arlington hotel
2. JUST IN: Winter Weather Advisory issued ahead of Thursday morning snow
3. BREAKING: APS closes schools Thursday due to expected snow
4. Morning Poll: Should APS continue to require masks in schools?
5. The shift from rain to snow delayed in Arlington, NWS decreases possible accumulation
6. Guaranteed income pilot program moves forward without any county funding
7. NEW: Covid cases falling in Arlington, following regional trends
8. Winter Restaurant Week to feature 18 Arlington restaurants
9. ‘Old Lee Highway’ gets new name: Cherry Hill Road
10. JUST IN: APS says masks still required for students, despite Youngkin’s order

Feel free to discuss those stories or anything else of local interest in the comments. Have a great weekend!